Date: Mon Mar 1, 2004 7:07 am
Subject: March Winds
Market Commentary: The market, DJ-30, closed up +3 points Friday. DJ-30 closed at 10,583. COMPQX down -3 points at 2009. QQQ -10 points at 36.57.
Sentiment: Longer term Bullish with sector rotation.
Current Outlook: The monthly trend for the market is counter wave up to meet the 50 sma's for several indexes. The weekly trend for the 1st week of March is a continued minor move down, of a several days.... The daily trend for Monday, is highs in the morning, testing 50 sma's, failing.
********* Be aware that the DJ-30 has moved sideways for the last 6 days, and a breakout could be of some magnitude.
*********
Big Picture: The 1000 sma. Remains in tact. The DJ-30 has broken the MOBO, Sma20, and the LR-30 lower Band The Dj-30 finds support down at the 10568 level and resistance at 10,628
QQQ's have a target top of 36.94- 37.02.
Sector/Industry Spotlight:
Bullish Sectors Music and Video stores + 6.5%
Percent of Sectors Bullish 58% Bearish 42%
Bearish Sectors Specialty Eateries –3.1%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The USD shows a Harami candlestick and technical sells, this should send it down for a few day minimum.
GOLD: Gold Has candlesticks and technicals suggesting an up Monday.
Hot Stocks SONS WAT CACS
Previous Picks *
*TSYS
Sell Set-ups CBK SSC CTXS
Set-ups: CRAY, Held the 500 , Friday "reversal to test 500 sma , BIG TEST TOMORROW".
Education Tip of the Day: A useful tool to test stochastic, SOAP, crossovers, as well as other ideas. http://www.ezwinx.com/products/ezstochx
Date: Tue Mar 2, 2004 8:34 am
Subject: Flat Market Breakout.
Market Commentary: The market, DJ-30, closed up +94 points Friday. DJ-30 closed at 10,678. COMPQX up + 27 points at 2057. QQQ up + 48 points at 37.05.
Sentiment: Longer term Bullish with sector rotation.
Current Outlook: The monthly trend for the market is counter wave up to meet the 50 sma's for several indexes. The weekly trend for the 1st week of March is a continued minor move up to the 50 sma for most indexes. The daily trend for Tuesday, is Down in the morning, with intra-day testing daily 50 sma's,
********* Be aware that the DJ-30 has moved sideways for the last 6 days, and a breakout could be of some magnitude.
*********
Big Picture: The 1000 sma. Remains in tact. The DJ-30 has broken the MOBO, Sma20, and the LR-30 lower Band The Dj-30 finds support down at the 10568 level and resistance at
10,628
QQQ's have reached yesterday's target top of 37.02. The test will be to see if it can hold above that level.
Sector/Industry Spotlight:
Bullish Sectors Gaming Activities + 5.0%
Percent of Sectors Bullish 95% Bearish 5%
Bearish Sectors Hospitals –4.1%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The USD shows a Harami candlestick and technical sells, this should send it down for a few day minimum. To 86.60's
GOLD: Gold Has candlesticks and technicals suggesting an up Monday… and now Tuesday.
Hot Stocks SEAC bull engulfing over the 50 sma. ZL, template buy, on the 50 sma. AVN, over the 50 sma AVII, bull engulfing ENMC, bull engulfing over the 50 sma QLGC, bull engulfing MOBO. CYD, MOBO, from template buy. Previous Picks
Watch for breakouts; NANO, at the 50 Sma.
Sell Set-ups
*CTXS
Education Tip of the Day: Parabolic SAR Definition: Parabolic SAR was developed by J. Welles Wilder. It is designed to create exit points for both long and short positions in such a way that it allows for reactions or fluctuations at the beginning of the position, but accelerates upward (for long positions) or downward (for short positions) as the movement tops out. Parabolic SAR is plotted around the price chart like a moving average or Bollinger Bands. The formula is complex, but is described in great detail in Wilder's book, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. Interpretation: If the price is above the reading for the SAR, one may consider entering a long position (or bullish). The SAR for each day is the exit point under this interpretation. Therefore, if the price falls below the SAR one may consider closing this long position. If the price is below the reading for the SAR, one may consider entering a short position (pr bearish). The SAR for each day would be the exit point under this interpretation (or a possible entry point for a long position.) Therefore, if the price rises above the SAR one may consider closing this short position. Wilder suggests using this indicator in a trending (or directional) market. If the security is trending up, then one mighty only take long positions. If the security is trending down, one might only take short positions.
Date: Tue Mar 2, 2004 11:24 pm
Subject: Failed 50 Sma for QQQ's ...DJ-30 going there .
Market Commentary: The market, DJ-30, closed down -86 points Tuesday. DJ-30 closed at 10,591. COMPQX down - 18 points at 2039. QQQ down -43points at 36.62
Sentiment: Longer term Bullish with sector rotation.
Current Outlook: The monthly trend for the market is counter wave up to meet the 50 sma's for several indexes. The weekly trend for the 1st week of March is a continued minor move up to the 50 sma for most indexes. The daily trend for Wednesday is a trend move down. testing daily 50 sma's,
********* DJ-30 is heading to the 50 sma , the QQQ's have failed the 50 sma for two days in a row,,(Ice Hole failure).
*********
Big Picture: The 1000 sma. Remains in tact. The DJ-30 has broken the MOBO, Sma20, and the LR-30 lower Band The Dj-30 finds support down at the 10568, 10,533 and 10,460 level and resistance at 10,628
QQQ's have reached yesterday's target top of 37.02. The test will be to see if it can hold above that level.
Sector/Industry Spotlight:
Bullish Sectors Telecom Services + 2.5%
Percent of Sectors Bullish 20% Bearish 80%
Bearish Sectors Major Airlines –4.0%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The USD shows some sell flats for a correction day.
GOLD: Gold Has been testing the monthe lows for several days, a break will send it down another $8 - $10. Currently a Snap back down signal suggests new lows.
Hot Stocks ANAD, Kicker with SOAP. NGEN, bullish engulfing, needs to take out the 20 and 50 sma VASO, MOBO Breakout. CRDM, bull engulfing, over the 100, 50 sma. RHI, bull engulfing, off the 200 sma. AG, Snap back up pattern PFCB Bull engulfing off the 50 sma. UTHR, doji's followed by a bull engulfing.
*Previous Picks
Watch for breakouts; GRMN, Double Doji and pop, needs a breakout of the 20 sma.
Sell Set-ups BMET
*CTXS (could take out Feb lows)
Education Tip of the Day: Relative Strength Ranking
Relative Strength Ranking (RSR) is based on the idea that most successful stocks must rank well as compared to the overall market based on several criteria. RSR measures the perfromance of a stock based on the past year's worth of data. Relative Strength Ranking is measured on a scale of 0 to 100, where each number can be considered a performance percentile out of all available individual stocks in the market.
Relative Strength Ranking can be used as part of an overall selection criteria for purchasing new stocks, and as verification for a stock that has limited potential for a major price advance. Many of the biggest price advances in recent history have been for stocks with an RSR topping eighty.
Choose leading stocks with high RSR. Avoid laggard stocks with low RSR.
Date: Thu Mar 4, 2004 12:27 am
Subject: New file uploaded to mentorcenter
Hello,
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Date: Thu Mar 4, 2004 1:42 am
Subject: "Ice Hole Failure" Sends Indexes Lower
Market Commentary: The market, DJ-30, closed up +1 points Tuesday. DJ-30 closed at 10,593. COMPQX down - 6 points at 2033. QQQ down -20 points at 36.42
Sentiment: M.A.P. pattern down
Current Outlook: The monthly trend for the market is counter wave up to meet the 50 sma's for several indexes and THEN fail. Tuesday and Wednesday saw this pattern innitiate its move. The "ICE HOLE Failure Pattern" has now started for the COMPQX, QQQ, SMH, SOX--X
********* DJ-30 is heading to the 50 sma, and came within 10 points before bounceing to close unchanged.
*********
Big Picture: The 1000 sma. Remains in tact. The DJ-30 has broken the MOBO, Sma20, and the LR-30 lower Band The Dj-30 finds support down at the 10550, 10,533 and 10,460 level and resistance at 10,614, 10637.
QQQ's have reached Tuesday's target top of 37.02. And on wednes again failed the 50 sma to take out Tuesday's lows, as well as lows for the last week. be to see if it can hold above that level.
Sector/Industry Spotlight:
Bullish Sectors Toys and Hobbies + 2.3%
Percent of Sectors Bullish 47% Bearish 53%
Bearish Sectors Drug Delivery –4.2%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The USD gapped and put in a shooting star to close unchanged. A bearish sign.
GOLD: Gold Has been testing the monthe lows for several days, a break will send it down another $8 - $10. Currently a Snap back down signal suggests new lows. And for Wednesday we saw new lows. Now buy FLATS suggest an up day .
Hot Stocks
GENZ, SOAP / BULL ENGULFING MANU, SOAP ON AN UP MOVE/ DOJI VRTS, SOAP/ DOJI CBST, SOAP/ DOJI ACL, SOAP/ DOJI AT THE 50 AMSG, SOAP/ BULL ENGULFING OFF THE 200
*NGEN, bullish engulfing, needs to take out the 20 and 50 sma
*Previous Picks
Watch for breakouts; GRMN, Double Doji and pop, needs a breakout of the 20 sma.
Sell Set-ups BMET
*CTXS (could take out Feb lows)
Education Tip of the Day:
One of the major M.A.P patterns is now posted to the Files in the Yahoo Club. (locate by date of post, 3/4/04) Note how all the failed 50 sma Indexes have followed M.A.P.
Date: Mon Mar 8, 2004 1:31 am
Subject: Multiple DJ-30 stocks on the razor's edge...50sma
Market Commentary: The market, DJ-30, closed up +7 points Friday. DJ-30 closed at 10,524. COMPQX down - 7 points at 2047. QQQ down -13 points at 36.63
M.A.P. Overall Outlook. M.A.P. pattern `down', since January 27th.
***************** Current Outlook: DJ-30 hit the 50 sma, and bounced to close up slightly. It is now qualified to break the 50 Sma ON THE NEXT MOVE DOWN TO THE
50 SMA. Hourly DJ-30 broke the
The QQQ's have put in a double "ICE HOLE Failure Pattern". Movement to make new lows taking out the last two Months lows should be seen this week. A kicker candlestick would void the down move.
*****************
Big Picture: The DJ-30 1000 sma. Remains in tact.
Sector/Industry Spotlight: MG771, Major Airlines, Watching for a snap back down to take out the 50 sma . MG421, Investment Brokerages, Watch for pullback , Sell FLATS.
Bullish Sectors Mortgage Investments + 3.1%
Percent of Sectors Bullish 73% Bearish 27%
Bearish Sectors Drug Delivery –1.6%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The USD gapped and put in a shooting star, doji and bearish engulfing for a three day picture.
86.71 major support now.
GOLD: Gold has been testing the month lows for several days. Currently move back up signal suggests a $408 target.
Bullish Indicator Stocks PWAV, Kicker of the 50 sma, look for the breakout move above MOBO. A, SOAP / BULL ENGULFING
*ACL, SOAP/ DOJI AT THE 50 ARRS, Shanghui duo off the 50 sma.
*Previous Picks
Watch for breakouts; INVX, watch for 500 breakout. JNPR, At the 50 sma , looking for bounce IBM, could signal mkt direction at he 50 sma.
SNAP BACKS HILL, COULD DO A KICKER UP. TDS
Sell Set-ups PLUG, At Ice Hole, failure set up. XYBR, At Ice Hole, failure set up LPNT, bearish engulfing at he 50 sma. XRX, at the 50 sma. Education Tip of the Day:
One of the major M.A.P patterns is now posted to the Files in the Yahoo Club. (locate by date of post, 3/4/04) Note how all the failed 50 sma Indexes have followed M.A.P.
Date: Mon Mar 8, 2004 11:06 pm
Subject: Dallas Advanced Trading Class...and MORE !
Sunday nite TCNET chat: "Monday, Mar. 8th should see the COMPQX down -30 to -40 points" ..actual -38. Email post "MAP down mkt", "double Ice Hole Failures"
This is not rocket science, just simple moving average price patterns.
We will be teaching this market predictive analysis system ( Ranked #1 market timer ) in this class as well as our other directional market indicators.
The Dallas Advanced Trading class is being held on Mar 13, 14 at the COURTYARD DALLAS-DFW AIRPORT SOUTH/IRVING
2280 VALEY VIEW LANE IRVING, TX, 75062
SIGN -UP AND INFORMATION AT www.wallstreetteachers@y...
As always we guarantee our classes with a 100% money back guarantee.
Graduates please sign in at www.wallstreetteachers@y...
Additional classes in DC, Mar 20-21; DENVER, Mar. 26-27, Orlando,April 3-4; L.A. April 17-18. Ship lecture cruise April 24 - May 1; Ft. Lauderdale May.
DON'T HAVE TCNET AND LIVE CHAT WITH ME , CONTACT ME EMAIL...@ techstudies2000@y...
Date: Mon Mar 8, 2004 11:33 pm
Subject: M.A.P. Shows market direction down.
Market Commentary: The market, DJ-30, closed Down -66 points Monday. DJ-30 closed at 10,529. COMPQX down - 38 points at 2008. QQQ down -86 points at 35.77
M.A.P. Overall Outlook. M.A.P. pattern `down', since January 27th.
***************** Current Outlook: DJ-30 hit the 50 sma, and broke thru on the second attack in two trading days. (Second test usually fails as posted yesterday) Trend still down. Any rallies have to face the 50 sma from the underside and would most likely fail.
The QQQ's have put in a double "ICE HOLE Failure Pattern". And made new lows today and for the year. Trend is still down. Any kicker candlestick pattern would signal the end to the down move.
*****************
Big Picture: The DJ-30 1000 sma. Remains in tact.
Sector/Industry Spotlight: MG771, Major Airlines, Again suggest lower moves after today's snap back down to test the 50 sma . MG421, Investment Brokerages, Again more sell flats as well as the ones from Monday.
Bullish Sectors Lodging + 3.5%
Percent of Sectors Bullish +14% Bearish -86%
Bearish Sectors Semiconductor Memory –4.2%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The USD down as projected Monday. Tuesday suggests a possible weak bounce to the upside.
GOLD: Gold has been testing the month lows for several days. Currently move back up signal suggests move back over $400 and a $408 target.
Bullish Indicator Stocks MEDT, hammer off the 50 sdma, look for price confirmation first. RGEN, MOBO breakout, halted at eh 50 sma. Watch for possible breakout. FDS, breakout over 50 sma.
*Previous Picks
Watch for breakouts;
IBM, broke the 50 sma. GE, broke the 50 sma (Kicker reversal down) EK, broke the 50 sma, found the 200 sma (LOD) INTC, broke the 200 sma. JNJ, facing the 50 sma. C, next touch of the 50 sma fails KO, still failing 50 sma. IP , heading to 50 sma. MRK, next test of 50 sma fails. DIS, heading to the 50 sma. HON, double failures of 50 sma. MSFT, broke the 500 Sma AA, breaking the 50 sma.
SNAP BACKS WIND, completed snap back to new highs Monday.
Sell Set-ups PLUG, A Ice Hole, failure. Perfect MAP. WIND at extremes, outside LR-30,20 , sell Flats.
Education Tip of the Day: M.A.P. points out market direction . One of the major M.A.P patterns is now posted to the Files in the Yahoo Club. (locate by date of post, 3/4/04) Note how all the failed 50 sma Indexes have followed M.A.P. All the DJ-30 stocks failing sma 50.
Date: Tue Mar 9, 2004 10:06 pm
Subject: New file uploaded to mentorcenter
Hello,
This email message is a notification to let you know that a file has been uploaded to the Files area of the mentorcenter group.
File : /Double blue ice hole failure of 50 sma..ppt Uploaded by : techstudies2000 <techstudies2000@y...> Description : Double blue ice hole failure of 50 sma.
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ilure%20of%2050%20sma..ppt
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Date: Wed Mar 10, 2004 9:23 am
Subject: Bounce in a Down Market
Market Commentary: The market, DJ-30, closed Down -72 points Tuesday. DJ-30 closed at 10,456. COMPQX down - 13 points at 1995. QQQ down -11 points at 35.66
M.A.P. Overall Outlook. M.A.P. pattern `down', since January 27th.
***************** Current Outlook: Bounce day ……. DJ-30 hit the 50 sma, and broke thru on the second attack in two trading days. (Second test usually fails as posted yesterday) MAP trend still down. Any rallies have to face the 50 sma from the underside and would most likely fail.
Bounce day …….. The QQQ's have put in a double "ICE HOLE Failure Pattern". And made new lows today and for the year. MAP trend is still down. Any kicker candlestick pattern would signal the end to the down move.
*****************
Big Picture: The DJ-30 1000 sma. Remains in tact.
Sector/Industry Spotlight:
Bullish Sectors Personal computers + 1.3%
Percent of Sectors Bullish +10% Bearish -80%
Bearish Sectors Printed Circuit Boards –3.7%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, Tuesday's suggests a possible weak bounce to the upside should continue some more Wednesday.
GOLD: Gold has been testing the month lows for several days. Currently move back up signal suggests move back over $400 and a $408 target.
Bullish Indicator Stocks PWAV, bull engulfing , needs to pop the 50 and 20 sma. PMTC, should bounce off the 50 sma. DSS, should bounce off the 50 sma. CX, should bounce off the 50 sma. TPK, should bounce off the 50 sma. ORLY, should bounce off the 50 sma.
*Previous Picks
Watch for breakouts;
18 of the DJ-30 stocks suggest an up day today. CAU, bull engulfing
SNAP BACKS
Sell Set-ups PLUG, A Ice Hole, failure. Perfect MAP.
Education Tip of the Day: M.A.P. points out market direction . New MAP posted to Yahoo. Two of the major M.A.P patterns are now posted to the Files in the Yahoo Club. (locate by date of post, 3/4/04) Note how all the failed 50 sma Indexes have followed M.A.P. All the DJ-30 stocks failing sma 50
Date: Thu Mar 11, 2004 12:09 am
Subject: Weak bounce sends Mkts lower.
Market Commentary: The market, DJ-30, closed Down -160 points Wednesday. DJ-30 closed at 10,296. COMPQX down - 31 points at 1964 QQQ down -47 points at 35.19
M.A.P. Overall Outlook. M.A.P. pattern `down', since January 27th.
***************** Current Outlook: Bounce yesterday lasted from Tuesday afternoon until 11AM when the mkts ran into some intra-day 50 sma's and failed to re-test and breakout. MAP on the daily took over from there and sent mkts down.
Same for the QQQ's. MAP trend is still down. Watch for a Gap down to Index support sma's. I will look to take nibbles on long side if it should play out. Any kicker candlestick pattern would signal the end to the down move.
*****************
Big Picture: Targets: Sma 100 10,213. Sma 150 = 9,962 Sma 2009,746 The DJ-30 1000 sma. Remains in tact.
Sector/Industry Spotlight:
Bullish Sectors Cleaning products + 1.8%
Percent of Sectors Bullish +10% Bearish -80%
Bearish Sectors Silver –6.1%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, Tuesday's suggests a possible weak bounce to the upside should continue some more Wednesday…and Thursday.
GOLD: We came within $1 of the 50 sma, now pulling back.
Bullish Indicator Stocks ORCL on any up move will go to the 200 sma PKS, over the 500 sma. SUPG, Kicker , could head to the $10 and 50 sma. STRA. Bull engulfing on a bad day.
Watch for any gap down and move up
Previous Picks
Watch for breakouts;
SNAP BACKS PRGX, WATCH TO SEE IF BEAR ENGULFING SNAPS BACK.
Sell Set-ups
*PLUG, A Ice Hole, failure. Perfect MAP.
Education Tip of the Day: M.A.P. points out market direction .
Two MAP's posted to Yahoo. Two of the major M.A.P patterns are now posted to the Files in the Yahoo Club. (locate by date of post, 3/4/04) Note how all the failed 50 sma Indexes have followed M.A.P. All the DJ-30 stocks failing sma 50
Date: Fri Mar 12, 2004 12:44 am
Subject: Historic TRIN Day Number Three.
Market Commentary: The market, DJ-30, closed Down -168 points Thursday. DJ-30 closed at 10,128. COMPQX down - 20 points at 1943 QQQ down -32 points at 34.87
M.A.P. Overall Outlook. M.A.P. pattern `down', since January 27th.
***************** Current Outlook: Historically we have never seen three TRIN days over 2.0. This has happened only one other time in recent TRIN history . That last time was followed by an up day. The sample is obviously small, but take note. Up moves should be MOBO breakouts…. first on the short term INTRA- DAY, then long term INTRA-DAY, if a rally is to happen. Stocks currently bouncing off the 50 sma should fair very well.
Also, any kicker candlestick pattern would signal the end to the down move.
*****************
Big Picture: DJ-30 Targets: Sma 150 = 9,962 Sma 2009,746 The DJ-30 1000 sma. Remains in tact.
Sector/Industry Spotlight:
Bullish Sectors Trucking + 1.4%
Percent of Sectors Bullish +4% Bearish -96%
Bearish Sectors Toys and Games –7.1%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The Dollar suggest a move back down to the 50sma.
GOLD: We can get an up move with a dollar drop. ABX suggesting an up move.
Bullish Indicator Stocks TARO, bull hammer at the 200 sma, and SOAP ORCL on any up move will go to the 200 sma
* SUPG, Kicker , could head to the $10 and 50 sma. Still looks OK.
* STRA. Still OK. CKC, in middle of Kicker up
Previous Picks
Watch for breakouts; BIV, BOUNCING OFF THE 50 SMA. Any dip that holds should be OK. DGII, BOUNCING OFF THE 50 SMA. TELK, Doji at the 50 sma.
SNAP BACKS LNDC, in middle of snap back to new highs. Strong move in a down mkt. SMTS, bull engulfing in snap back mode. IPXL, let price confirm.
Sell Set-ups to late in the M.A.P. for these right now.
Education Tip of the Day: TRIN
Trading Index. A market indicator used in technical analysis, calculated as follows: Arms Index = ((# of advancing issues / # of declining issues) / (Total up volume / Total down volume)). A value of less than 1 is considered
M.A.P. points out market direction .
Two MAP's posted to Yahoo. Two of the major M.A.P patterns are now posted to the Files in the Yahoo Club. (locate by date of post, 3/4/04) Note how all the failed 50 sma Indexes have followed M.A.P. All the DJ-30 stocks failing sma 50
Date: Mon Mar 15, 2004 2:04 am
Subject: Option Expiration Rally
Market Commentary: The market, DJ-30, closed up + 111 points Friday. DJ-30 closed at 10,240. COMPQX up +41 points at 1984 (Kicker) QQQ up +64 points at 35.51 (Kicker)
M.A.P. Overall Outlook. M.A.P. pattern `down', since January 27th.
***************** Current Outlook: The TRIN predictive move gave two Kicker signals in our three indexes. Monday should see some continuation of Friday's move up. Current move could see several Indexes go back to test the 50 sma.
*****************
Big Picture: DJ-30 Targets: Sma 150 = 9,962 Sma 2009,746 The DJ-30 1000 sma. Remains in tact.
Sector/Industry Spotlight:
Bullish Sectors Printed Circuit Boards + 5.1%
Percent of Sectors Bullish +97% Bearish -3%
Bearish Sectors Cigarettes –2.1%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The Dollar suggest a move back up Monday.
GOLD: We can get an DOWN move with a dollar UP move.
Bullish Indicator Stocks AMCC SOAP, target 50 sma MRVC LAMR, Shanghui Duo
*TARO, bull hammer at the 200 sma, and SOAP
* SUPG, Kicker , could head to the $10 and 50 sma. Still looks OK.
*Previous Picks
Watch for breakouts; BIV, BOUNCING OFF THE 50 SMA. Any dip that holds should be OK. DGII, BOUNCING OFF THE 50 SMA. TELK, Doji at the 50 sma.
SNAP BACKS FDC PLMO
*SMTS, bull engulfing in snap back mode.
*IPXL, let price confirm.
Sell Set-ups to late in the M.A.P. for these right now.
Education Tip of the Day: TRIN
Trading Index. A market indicator used in technical analysis, calculated as follows: Arms Index = ((# of advancing issues / # of declining issues) / (Total up volume / Total down volume)). A value of less than 1 is considered
M.A.P. points out market direction .
Two MAP's posted to Yahoo. Two of the major M.A.P patterns are now posted to the Files in the Yahoo Club. (locate by date of post, 3/4/04) Note how all the failed 50 sma Indexes have followed M.A.P. All the DJ-30 stocks failing sma 50 , with a bounce due.
Date: Tue Mar 16, 2004 12:41 am
Subject: Market focus on Terrorism and Political Fallout.
Market Commentary: The market, DJ-30, closed Down -137 points Monday. DJ-30 closed at 10,102. COMPQX down - 45 points at 1939 QQQ down -62 points at 34.89
M.A.P. Overall Outlook. M.A.P. pattern `down', since January 27th.
***************************************
******************* Current Outlook: The markets decided to react negatively to the bombing and change in government in Spain. I was looking for a bounce here today and this week going into the option expiration week, with a continuation down move possibly starting next week next week. Today they acted like they did not want to wait to get to our targets from M.A.P.
On the Hourly charts we saw a negative Kicker candle opening down and breaking to the down side of MOBO for the entire day for all indexes. Current market is at the bottom of the LR-30-20 and MOBO on the intra-day time periods, rallies should be contained inside these channels.
Tuesday's market is this bottom holds should see a rally to the top of the 30 and possibly the hourly LR-30, 20 and 20 sma resistances.
We have a DJ-30 target of 9767 sma , yes break the DJ-30 10,000 levels. We have a COMPQX target of 1877 sma . We have a QQQ target of 34.15 approaching soon, 200 sma.
***************************************
*********************
Big Picture: MAJOR M.A.P. correction of 2003 Bull mkt.
Sector/Industry Spotlight: MG771 , Moving to the 500 sma , another 15 points to go. MG420, Broke the 50 sma today, with major brokerage houses reporting financials this week. MG136, almost back to the 50 sma.
ALL WORDEN MARKET INDICATORS T2118 , continues to the lower LR-30,20 and lower MOBO.
Bullish Sectors Cement +.6%
Percent of Sectors Bullish +3% Bearish -97%
Bearish Sectors Major Airlines –8.6%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The Dollar still suggest a move back down to the 50sma though it is not running there fast.
GOLD: NEM is in no-man's-land between the 50 and 200 sma. As is GOLD too. "SNAP BACK" up signal is currently flashing for gold with the first target and obstacle the 50 sma. Monthly looks like a snap back to new highs.
Bullish Indicator Stocks FAX, a move back to and possibly thru the 50 sma. CEF, Snap Back up . WBR, should retest the 50 sma.
*Previous Picks
Watch for breakouts; CEPH, first test of the 50sma
STOCK HEADING BACK TO THE 50 SMA FAST SBUX COST, failing 50 sma.
SNAP BACKS MOLX, 200 sma failure. CTXS, 50 failure , snap back down.
Sell Set-ups ATYT getting ready to retest the 200
M.A.P. SELL PATTERN STOCKS. AMGN, mature pattern.
Education Tip of the Day: Linear Regression Linear regression is a statistical tool used for forecasting future price. The concept behind linear regression is to find the best estimate of the trend given a noisy sample of data points. It is calculated by using the "Least Squares" method over a given period, which is drawn as a trendline extending through the defined period that attempts to filter out market noise. There are two conventional interpretations for the linear regression line. The first interpretation is to use the linear regression as the overall trendline for that given period. If the line is positive, it may suggest a buying opportunity, whereas a turn downwards suggests one may consider selling the stock. Price divergences below the line indicate a possible buying opportunity, for the market is oversold, while divergences above the line indicate the market is potentially overbought. Linear regression will work best when the period being studied is similar to the cycle length or typical trend length of the security in question. A second interpretation is to construct a linear regression channel, consisting of two parallel lines at fixed distances above and below the linear regression line. These lines can be used as support and resistance lines, which are used to watch the battle between buyers and sellers. Support and resistance lines are drawn as the upper and lower limits of a trading range, whereby the support line is the bottom line, and is the point at which "bulls" will not let the price fall below, and the resistance line is the top line, the point above which the "bears" will not let the price rise above. Conventionally, a breakout above resistance or below support indicates that there is either a) some news about the company which justifies recreating the upper and lower trading limits or b) there is about to be a correction towards the range as trader's are hesitant about the stock's new value. Using the Linear Regression Channel can assist in finding support and resistance levels from the Linear Regression.
M.A.P. points out market direction .
Two MAP's posted to Yahoo. Two of the major M.A.P patterns are now posted to the Files in the Yahoo Club. (locate by date of post, 3/4/04) Note how all the failed 50 sma Indexes have followed M.A.P. All the DJ-30 stocks failing sma 50
Date: Wed Mar 17, 2004 12:08 am
Subject: Wednesday's Positive Bias Waits for Greenspan.
Market Commentary: The market, DJ-30, closed UP +81 points Tuesday. DJ-30 closed at 10,184. COMPQX up +3 points at 1943 QQQ up +6 points at 34.95
M.A.P. Overall Outlook. M.A.P. pattern `down', since January 27th.
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************************* Current Outlook:
The market moved off the bottom of the LR-30-20 and MOBO on the intra-day time period, rallies ("should be") were contained inside these channels having made a new market low and bouncing back to the upper channel bands at the close.
Wednesday, I am encouraged by the last hour's up move into the close, best we have seen in two weeks. I would expect some continued movement following thru to Wednesday. Hourly up target is 10,324,…
30 min targets, 10,190 (hit today at close). MER is flashing Buy flats that would portend an up mkt. (Never seen so many Financial sector, MG421, stocks all hitting the
50 sma at once before. Greenspan speaks at 11:30AM , and all bets are off at that time.
Down side We have a DJ-30 target of 9767 sma , yes break the DJ-30 10,000 levels. We have a COMPQX target of 1877 sma . We have a QQQ target of 34.15 approaching soon, 200 sma.
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Big Picture: MAJOR M.A.P. correction of 2003 Bull mkt.
Sector/Industry Spotlight: MG136, back to the 50 sma and bounce.
ALL WORDEN MARKET INDICATORS T2118 Hit the lower LR-30,20
Bullish Sectors Movie Production +3.9%
Percent of Sectors Bullish +74% Bearish -26%
Bearish Sectors Trucking –2.7%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The Dollar still suggest a move back down to the 50sma though it is not running there fast.
GOLD: NEM is still in no-man's-land between the 50 and 200 sma. Still up. GOLD up heading to the 50 sma and "SNAP BACK" up signal is currently flashing for gold with the first target and obstacle the 50 sma. Monthly looks like a snap back to new highs.
Bullish Indicator Stocks EMT , breaking over the 50 sma, MOBO. SNRR, SOAP, MOBO, breakout DFCT. starting wave 3…. EME, starting wave 3…. NFLD, starting wave 3…. JLG,
KICKERS TTWO, MOBO breakout CCI, kicker off the 50 sma.
Previous Picks
Watch for breakouts; CEPH, first test of the 50sma
STOCK HEADING BACK TO THE 50 SMA THC XLA DANKY
*FAST
*SBUX
*COST, failing 50 sma.
SNAP BACKS WVFC, back to the highs
Sell Set-ups
M.A.P. SELL PATTERN STOCKS. AMGN, mature pattern. ..should start a rebound Wednesday.
Education Tip of the Day: McClellan Oscillator The McClellan Oscillator is a technical indicator based on the New York Stock Exchange, not any one particular stock. It is a short term and intermediate term "market breadth" indicator, meaning it is designed to determine the strength of a market trend. This is based on the concept that a robust uptrend or downtrending market is characterized by a large number of stocks advancing or declining moderately, rather than a small number of stocks making large gains or losses. The McClellan Oscillator is calculated by subtracting a 39-day exponential moving average of the difference between the advancing issues and the declining issues from a 19-day exponential moving average of the difference between the advancing issues and the number of the declining issues in the New York Stock Exchange. Volatility has several uses and potential interpretations. There are two major sets of interpretations for the McClellan Oscillator. The first interpretation is to use regions to derive bullish and bearish signals. If the Oscillator extends below -100 or above 100, it represents extreme oversold/overbought conditions, and suggests a continuation of the current downtrend or uptrend for a short-to- intermediate period of time, respectively. If the McClellan Oscillator falls into the -70 to -100 region and turns up, it can be considered bullish. On the other hand, if it rises into the +70 to +100 region and turns down, it can be considered bearish. The second interpretation is to look at whether the Oscillator is positive or negative. · When the indicator goes from negative to positive, a bullish signal is generated. · When the indicator goes from positive to negative, a bearish signal is generated.
M.A.P. points out market direction .
Two MAP's posted to Yahoo. Two of the major M.A.P patterns are now posted to the Files in the Yahoo Club. (locate by date of post, 3/4/04) Note how all the failed 50 sma Indexes have followed M.A.P. All the DJ-30 stocks failing sma 50
Date: Thu Mar 18, 2004 8:57 am
Subject: Option Volitility Week Shows Up.
Market Commentary: The market, DJ-30, closed UP +115 points Wednesday. DJ-30 closed at 10,300. COMPQX up +33 points at 1976 QQQ up +.55 points at 35.50
M.A.P. Overall Outlook. M.A.P. pattern `down', since January 27th.
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****************************** Current Outlook: The market continued the up move it started in the last hours of trading on Tuesday. The DJ-30 HOD was within 2 points of our target
10,324!
MER was flashing Buy flats Tuesday that proved to be good fir it and the markets.
The markets for Thursday shows several sell flats that calls for a down close.
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Big Picture: MAJOR M.A.P. correction of 2003 Bull mkt.
Sector/Industry Spotlight: MG852, back to the 50 sma and … Ice hole failure ?
ALL WORDEN MARKET INDICATORS several sell flats
Bullish Sectors Internet Info +5.0%
Percent of Sectors Bullish +98% Bearish -2%
Bearish Sectors Drug Mfg. –.8%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The Dollar still suggest a move back down to the 50sma though it is not running there fast.
GOLD: NEM is still in no-man's-land between the 50 and 200 sma with a bull engulfing Wednesday
Still up. GOLD up heading to the 50 sma (hit it Wednesday) and "SNAP BACK" up signal is currently flashing for gold with the first target and obstacle the 50 sma. Monthly looks like a snap back to new highs.
Bullish Indicator Stocks MLNM, get confirmation . AKAM, bounce off the 50 sma, get confirmation.
KICKERS SYNC
*CCI, kicker off the 50 sma. GEG kicker off the 50 sma SCO
Previous Picks
Watch for breakouts; CEPH, first test of the 50sma
STOCK HEADING BACK TO THE 50 SMA
*FAST , hit the 50 Wed. and should fail here.
SNAP BACK EELN
Sell Set-ups
M.A.P. SELL PATTERN STOCKS.
Education Tip of the Day:
Volatility Volatility is a measure of a stock's tendency to fluctuate over a range of prices during a set period of time. IQ Chart calculates volatility as the annualized standard deviation of the price fluctuation over a given period. Volatility has several uses and potential interpretations. First, the degree of volatility of a particular security can be used to determine whether or not a stock should be considered for selection. Low degrees of volatility can suggest that a stock will tend to stick to its underlying trend while high degrees of volatility can suggest that a stock will move greatly about its trend. This knowledge can be valuable for incorporating into trading and investment strategies in a number of ways, including the likelihood of a price change being a trend change, how price movement is related to industry or market movement, whether a stock is more appropriate for longer-term or shorter-term analysis, and so on. Second, when a stock tends to have a certain range of volatility over an extended period of time, and then breaks out of the range upward, it can mean that there will be a change in trend. If it breaks out of the range downward, it can mean that the frequency and severity of short-term price swings will decrease as the overall trend establishes itself among investors. Third, recognizing cycles in volatility can be useful in determining appropriate times to anticipate a price breakout. Many stocks can have cycles with a high degree of regularity. Volatility's tendency to be autocorrelative (meaning that reversals often continue in the new direction) can help create circumstances to be a powerful leading indicator. Finally, volatility can be used to calculate the theoretical option value. ·
M.A.P. points out market direction .
Two MAP's posted to Yahoo. Two of the major M.A.P patterns are now posted to the Files in the Yahoo Club. (locate by date of post, 3/4/04) Note how all the failed 50 sma Indexes have followed M.A.P. All the DJ-30 stocks failing sma 50
Date: Fri Mar 19, 2004 2:03 am
Subject: TRIPLE WITCHING
Market Commentary: The market, DJ-30, closed Down -4 points Thursday. DJ-30 closed at 10,294. COMPQX Down -14 points at 1962 QQQ up –16 points at 35.34
M.A.P. Overall Outlook. M.A.P. pattern `down', since January 27th.
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*************************** Current Outlook: The market reversed the early down move and started up in the last two hours of trading on Thursday leaving the intra-day 60 and 30 in an up-trend.
MER closed up and suggests a supporting roll for an up Friday.
The market for Friday shows a continued SOAP template up suggesting a close to the upside. This is on a triple witching Friday of volatility. Should we take out the lows for today we will have difficulty closing to the upside.
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Big Picture: MAJOR M.A.P. correction of 2003 Bull mkt. M,A,P, for the DJ-30 would to be to test the 50 sma.
Sector/Industry Spotlight: MG852, back to the 50 sma and … Ice hole failure ?
ALL WORDEN MARKET INDICATORS
Bullish Sectors Silver +4.5%
Percent of Sectors Bullish +35% Bearish -65%
Bearish Sectors Major Airlines. –2.6%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The Dollar still suggest a move back down to the 50sma though it is not running there fast.
GOLD: NEM gapped above the 50 Thursday.
GOLD Still up and now above the 50 sma (hit it Wednesday). Monthly looks like a snap back to new highs.
Bullish Indicator Stocks SIGM, heading to the 50 GD, SOAP OXGN Template SOAP TARO, Moving off the 200 sma AT, bounce off the 50 sam.
KICKERS IAG STEC
* Previous Picks
Watch for breakouts; CEPH, first test of the 50sma
STOCK HEADING BACK TO THE 50 SMA
*FAST , hit the 50 Wed. and should fail here.
SNAP BACK ABS CHKP CNXT
Sell Set-ups PACR ice hole test of the 50 sma OCR ice hole BREAK of the 50 sma CYPB
M.A.P. SELL PATTERN STOCKS. GPC IPAR MOT
Education Tip of the Day:
Force Index The ForceIndex indicator relates price to volume by multiplying net change and volume. ForceIndex is calculated using the following equation: ForceIndex = Volume(today) * (Close(this period) - Close(last period)) ForceIndex is typically presented as two smoothed averages (slow and fast) to reduce the likelihood of false signals. ForceIndex is used by some investors as a running total of where money is flowing. Because this indicator multiplies price movement in a period by the volume of that period, the value of ForceIndex will change the most when net change is accompanied by higher relative volume. Investor can use this index to both (a) compare current price movements to past ones and (b) evaluate the current trend. The periods used are a moving average of the ForceIndex values, which reduces choppiness. Generally, investors use periods which match the length of the trends in which they are studying. The longer-average will be the intermediate or longer-term trend and the shorter-average will be a shorter-term trend. Some conventional interpretations follow: One interpretation is to look for a confirmation or divergence between ForceIndex and the price. When ForceIndex moves up with price increases or down with price decreases, it can indicate that the current trend is has momentum. When ForceIndex diverges from price, it can indicate that the trend may change. Another interpretation is to receive signals based on a crossover of the two lines. When the slow line crosses above the fast line and they are both increasing, it can be considered a confirmation of an uptrend. Conversely, when the fast line crosses below the slow line and they are both incresing, it can be seen as confirmation of a downtrend. When a crossover occurs when the lines are going in opposite directions, it can indicate a trend reversal. Some traders seek to eliminate some false signals by using only the signals which correspond to the direction of the intermediate to long term trends.
M.A.P. points out market direction .
Two MAP's posted to Yahoo. Two of the major M.A.P patterns are now posted to the Files in the Yahoo Club. (locate by date of post, 3/4/04) Note how all the failed 50 sma Indexes have followed M.A.P. All the DJ-30 stocks failing sma 50
Date: Fri Mar 19, 2004 2:08 am
Subject: Washington DC and Denver Classes this Weekend and Next.
DC/VIR. CLASS DATE MARCH 20, 21. SAT, SUN. Crystal City Marriott
1999 Jefferson Davis HWY Arlington, Va.
703-413-5505 Room rate $99.00 Book early GO TO WWW.WALLSTREETTEACHERS.COM for cost and pay.
DENVER Class is the weekend of March 26, 27, 28.
I wll do A FREE evening Denvers Trading Group meeting , Friday nite,
26th. 7pm TO 9pm at the Renaissance Hotel http://www.denvertradinggroup.com/
Class is on March 27, 28. Denver Renaissance
3801 Quebec Street, Denver, CO 80207 Go to ORbitZ for reservations
To register and sign in go to http://www.wallstreetteachers.com
Date: Mon Mar 22, 2004 1:58 am
Subject: Continuation of Friday's Last Minute Sell-Off
Market Commentary: The market, DJ-30, closed Down -109 points Friday. DJ-30 closed at 10,186. COMPQX Down -22 points at 1940 QQQ up –59 points at 34.75
M.A.P. Overall Outlook. M.A.P. pattern `down', since January 27th.
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*************************** Current Outlook: The market started down in the last hour of trading on Friday making an new low for the year.
MER shows the Snap Back down pattern that would break the 50 sma.
Monday is full of Sell Flats suggesting a continued sell-off for the markets. Looking for a DJ-30 break of 10,000
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Big Picture: MAJOR M.A.P. correction of 2003 Bull mkt.
Sector/Industry Spotlight: MG420, Snap back down to the 50 sma and failure. MG831, Testing the 200 sma.
ALL WORDEN MARKET INDICATORS T2106 50 sma failure and flat sells , plus snap back down pattern.
Bullish Sectors Metal fabrication +3.0%
Percent of Sectors Bullish +16% Bearish -84%
Bearish Sectors Semi-Conductor Equipment. –3.8%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The Dollar still suggest a move back down to the 50sma though it is not running there fast. Within a point now of the 50 Sma.
GOLD: NEM Sp[inning top and Doji , wit hsell Flat for Monday..
GOLD Daily looks down for Monday. Monthly looks like a snap back to new highs.
Bullish Indicator Stocks INGN, possible move back to the 50 sma. MZ, trying to do a snap back up to a new weekly high.
KICKERS
* Previous Picks
Watch for breakouts;
STOCK HEADING BACK TO THE 50 SMA
SNAP BACK NFLX down PRST down ST
