Date: Fri Jan 2, 2004 8:42 am
Subject: Happy New Year !
The market, DJ-30, closed up +28 points Wednesday DJ-30 closed at 10,453 COMPQX down -6 points at 2003
Sentiment: Longer term Bullish Market with sector rotation.
Current Outlook: The monthly trend for the market is undetermined for January. The weekly trend for the market is Up. The daily trend for Friday is up with dropping volume for as we finish off the New Years Holidays.. First DJ-30 support 9,971and 9,785, first resistance is 10,699 First support QQQ, 36.23. Big Picture: For the intra-day moves for the DJ-30 look at it's 30 and 60 minute MOBO's. The 1000 sma. remains in tact for the DJ-30, and major dip will re- test it. I continue to like to see 9787 hold for any big dip low.
Sector/Industry Spotlight: None of Friday.
Bullish Sectors Grocery Stores +1.2%
Percent of Sectors Bullish 43% Bearish 57%
Bearish Sectors jdj-30 Drugs Wholesale –2.8%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The USD finds new support here in the 86.20 area for the third day. New USD lows look most likely for the Dollar this week.
GOLD: Gold is down at $415 .00 and still holding over $400. Gold should try and hit the $420.00 levels now. HUI—X confirmed our long stance last week with a move off the 50 sma. and a 8.5% gain. I still like the 50 sma for accumulation of Gold stock positions.
Hot Stocks OCPI, moving off the 50sma first target $4.00+ TWAV* Moving after initial MOBO breakout, intra-day target of $6.30. SIGA, Broke out of 50sma, intra-day tarket $$2.40 VRSO First target $3.60, then $3.90 AFCI, Watch to pop thru $20.29 ITRA, needs to pop thru $2.08, first target 2.36 RGEN, Bounced off the 500 for two weeks, needs to pop thru $4.47, target $ 4.73, then $5.05 MBT, Should make new highs. If hits $90 then moves to $100 SPIL , 50 sma breakout. AVNX*, target today $5.30 KANA, still holding MOBO on re-entry pullback.
* Indicates a stock on a prior "Hot Stock" list.
** Indicates a stock on a "Hot " prospect.
Bear set-ups: ABC, failed the 50 sma Bullish Patterns: SIGM Thru the 50 , heading to $8.25
Bearish Patterns FJC, breaking the upper MOBO's.
Education Tip of the Day:
Happy Holidays! Do something nice for someone outside your family that is in need of some cheer, emotional support, of financial help.
Date: Mon Jan 5, 2004 8:58 am
Subject: Market starts off the New Year Week with a Pop
The market, DJ-30, closed down –44 points Friday DJ-30 closed at 10,409 COMPQX down -3 points at 2008
Sentiment: Longer term Bullish Market with sector rotation.
Current Outlook: The monthly technical trend for the market is profit taking for January. The weekly trend for the market is Sideways to down The daily trend for Monday is up in the AM with selling pressure in the afternoon to close down. Possible "pop and Drop day. First DJ-30 support 10,370, and 10,339 First resistance COMPQX, 2025, this should be the start level for a dip or market correction.
Big Picture: For the intra-day moves for the DJ-30 look at it's 30 and 60 minute MOBO's. The 1000 sma. remains in tact for the DJ-30 I continue to like to see 9786 hold for any big dip low.
Sector/Industry Spotlight:
Bullish Sectors Data Storage devoices 12.0%
Percent of Sectors Bullish 73% Bearish 27%
Bearish Sectors jdj-30 Healthe Care Plans –11.3%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The USD finds new lows at the 86.20 area. "New USD lows look most likely for the Dollar this week." Last weeks quote good for this week.
GOLD: Gold is at $417 .70 and still holding over $400. Gold should try and hit the $420.00 levels now. HUI—X confirmed our long stance last week with a move off the 50 sma. I still like the 50 sma for accumulation of Gold stock positions.
Hot Stocks ECIL. MOBO and 50 sma bounce. GRB MOBO and 50 sma breakout. JDSU * MOBO and 500 sma breakout. JMAR * MOBO continues, possible 100% since breakout. ANDW * MOBO and 50, 500 sma breakout. SYNM, MOBO and 50 sma breakout. TEVA MOBOand 50 sma breakout .
* Indicates a stock on a prior "Hot Stock" list.
** Indicates a stock on a "Hot " prospect.
Bear set-ups: ABAX, failed the 50 sma Bullish Patterns: NTES SOAP, MOBO, heading to 50 sma.
Bearish Patterns TIII, breaking the 50 sma and MOBO
Education Tip of the Day:
Average True Range Average True Range is an indicator from J. Welles Wilder that measures commitment by comparing the range for each successive day. Expanding and contracting ranges signal eagerness in a trending market. Please note that Wilder does not use the standard moving average formula and the time period may need adjustment. Trading Signals High values are normally found just before market tops and bottoms. Low values are usually found in ranging markets.
Average True Range peaks before price bottoms.
1. Low readings - the market is ranging.
2. Average True Range peaks before the market top.
3. Average True Range peaks after a secondary rally.
4. Average True Range peaks during the early stages of a major price fall.
Date: Tue Jan 6, 2004 8:52 am
Subject: Stocks Show Strong Push From Suport Levels
The market, DJ-30, closed up +134 points Monday. DJ-30 closed at 10,544 COMPQX up +40 points at 2006
Sentiment: Longer term Bullish Market with sector rotation.
Current Outlook: The monthly trend for the market is up for January. The weekly trend for the market is up. The daily trend for Monday is up . First DJ-30 support 10,370, and 10,339 First resistance COMPQX, 2025, This was broken Monday, it now should be a support.
Big Picture: For the intra-day moves for the DJ-30 look at it's 30 and 60 minute MOBO's. Friday's low, hourly, was the 50 sma.. that support is now 10,410. The 1000 sma. remains in tact for the DJ-30 I continue to like to see 9786 hold for any big dip low.
Sector/Industry Spotlight: Silver, Has been the lead sector for first two days of new year.
Bullish Sectors Silver +11.7.%
Percent of Sectors Bullish 85% Bearish 15%
Bearish Sectors jdj-30 Medical Practitioners –3.7%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The USD finds new lows here in the 85.20 area . This is the area for our first projected bounce last fall. GOLD: Gold is at $426 .10 and still holding over $400. Gold hit the $420.00 levels, my first target. HUI—X confirmed our long stance last week with a move off the 50 sma. I still like the 50 sma for accumulation of Gold stock positions.
Hot Stocks GLW MTSN, PKTR, HSKA, AMAT,(kicker) AVID CTXS, SVNT, RDVW, NETE, DNDN, MENT, VIGN, IONA, VOCL, VNWI, SGMA, VLNC, MACR
* Indicates a stock on a prior "Hot Stock" list.
** Indicates a stock is a "Hot " prospect.
Bear set-ups: AV, failed the 50 sma Bullish Patterns: CCUR SOAP, MOBO , broke above the 500 sma.
Bearish Patterns BDY, breaking the 50 sma
Education Tip of the Day:
Happy Holidays! WILLIAM'S % R Williams %R (pronounced "percent R") is a momentum indicator that measures overbought/oversold levels. Williams %R was developed by Larry Williams. The interpretation of Williams' %R is very similar to that of the Stochastic Oscillator (page 244) except that %R is plotted upside- down and the Stochastic Oscillator has internal smoothing. To display the Williams %R indicator on an upside-down scale, it is usually plotted using negative values (e.g., -20%). For the purpose of analysis and discussion, simply ignore the negative symbols. Readings in the range of 80 to 100% indicate that the security is oversold while readings in the 0 to 20% range suggest that it is overbought. As with all overbought/oversold indicators, it is best to wait for the security's price to change direction before placing your trades. For example, if an overbought/oversold indicator (such as the Stochastic Oscillator or Williams' %R) is showing an overbought condition, it is wise to wait for the security's price to turn down before selling the security. (The MACD is a good indicator to monitor change in a security's price.) It is not unusual for overbought/oversold indicators to remain in an overbought/oversold condition for a long time period as the security's price continues to climb/fall. Selling simply because the security appears overbought may take you out of the security long before its price shows signs of deterioration. An interesting phenomena of the %R indicator is its uncanny ability to anticipate a reversal in the underlying security's price. The indicator almost always forms a peak and turns down a few days before the security's price peaks and turns down. Likewise, %R usually creates a trough and turns up a few days before the security's price turns up. The formula used to calculate Williams' %R is similar to the Stochastic Oscillator:
Date: Wed Jan 7, 2004 8:39 am
Subject: Split Day to Confuse The Top Pickers
The market, DJ-30, closed –5 points Tuesday. DJ-30 closed at 10,538 COMPQX up +10 points at 2057
Sentiment: Longer term Bullish Market with sector rotation.
Current Outlook: The monthly trend for the market is up for January. The weekly trend for the market is up. The daily trend for Wednesday is downward pressure, many sell FLAT signals. First DJ-30 support 10,370, and 10,339 First resistance COMPQX, 2025, This was broken Monday, it now should be a support and target for any selloff.
Big Picture: For the intra-day moves for the DJ-30 look at it's 30 and 60 minute MOBO's. Friday's low, hourly, was the 50 sma.. that support is now 10,436. The 1000 sma. remains in tact for the DJ-30 I continue to like to see 9786 hold for any big dip low.
Sector/Industry Spotlight: Silver, Has been the lead sector for first two days of new year.
Bullish Sectors Major Airlines +4.6.%
Percent of Sectors Bullish 55% Bearish 45%
Bearish Sectors jdj-30 Silver –2.2%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The USD finds new lows here in the 85.20 area . This is the area for our first projected bounce last fall. GOLD: Gold is at $422 .10 and still holding over $400. Gold hit the $428.+ levels, yesterday blowing thru my first target of $420. This is looking like a top for a while, again. I still like the 50 sma for accumulation of Gold stock positions which is now a ways away for many gold stocks.
Hot Stocks JBLU, CLE, POSP (kicker) FRK (kicker) SCO, (kicker), LUV, PWAV (500 sma breakout) CCUR* (still long signals), KKD(watch list, ready to move up again) EXTR* (last week pick) DLTR (gap over the 500sma) RNWK
* Indicates a stock on a prior "Hot Stock" list.
** Indicates a stock is a "Hot " prospect.
Bear set-ups: MZ, failed the MOBO, heading to the 50 sma Bullish Patterns: PDYN SOAP, MOBO , broke above the 500 sma, BULLISH ENGULFING
Bearish Patterns ELAB, breaking the 50 sma
Education Tip of the Day:
UPSIDE-DOWNSIDE VOLUME The Upside-Downside Volume indicator shows the difference between up (advancing) and down (declining) volume on the New York Stock Exchange. Click here for more information on Advancing, declining, and unchanged volume. The Upside-Downside Volume indicator shows the net flow of volume into or out of the market. A reading of +40 indicates that up volume exceeded down volume by 40 million shares. Likewise a reading of -40 would indicate that down volume exceeded up volume by 40 million shares. The indicator is useful to compare today's volume action with previous days. Currently, normal readings are in the area of 50. Very active days exceed 150 million shares (the October, 1987 crash reached -602). The Cumulative Volume Index is a cumulative total of the Upside- Downside Volume indicator.
Date: Thu Jan 8, 2004 9:03 am
Subject: Stocks Turn To "Froth and Foam Moves"
The market, DJ-30, closed –10 points Wednesday DJ-30 closed at 10,529 COMPQX up +20 points at 2077
Sentiment: Longer term Bullish Market with sector rotation.
Current Outlook: The monthly trend for the market is up for January. The weekly trend for the market is up. The daily trend for Thursday technically is mixed, reflecting the different markets being up and down and out of sync. I expect a gap up and pre-2000 market bubble type stock moves. First DJ-30 support 10,370, and 10,339 First resistance COMPQX, 2025, This was broken Monday, it now should be a support and target for any selloff.
Big Picture: For the intra-day moves for the DJ-30 look at it's 30 and 60 minute MOBO's. The first major Dj-30 support is now 10,461. Taking out yesterday's Dj-30 open would send the market into sizable profit taking. The 1000 sma. remains in tact for the DJ-30 I continue to like to see 9.786 hold for any big dip low.
Sector/Industry Spotlight:
Bullish Sectors Processing Systems +7.0%
Percent of Sectors Bullish 52% Bearish 48%
Bearish Sectors jdj-30 Silver –5.7%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The USD finds support here in the 85. area . This is the area for our first projected bounce last fall and continues to hold.
GOLD: Gold is at $423 .10 and still holding over $400. Gold hit the $428.+ levels, then dropped below $420. It is in a new trading range. This is looking like a top for a while, again. I still like the 50 sma for accumulation of Gold stock positions which is now a ways away for many gold stocks.
Hot Stocks USNA, kicker, needs MOBO move today ARDM, MOBO and 50 breakout DISH MOBO and 50 breakout PACW, Mobo and 50 sma breakout. GCOM, bounce off 500 sma, no MOBO yet, target $5.50 ENMD, continues from last week MOBO. PTN, MOBO and SOAP, and 50 sma breakout. TGAL, continues on list. WFR, MOBO and 50 breakout OPSW, MOBO and 50 breakout TERN* , MOBO and at 50. NTES,* continues on list. CLE,* continues on list. CCUR* continues on list.), JBLU, and LUV , continue on MOBO list.
* Indicates a stock on a prior "Hot Stock" list.
Bear set-ups: STLD, failed the MOBO, heading to the 50 sma Bullish Patterns: PDYN SOAP, MOBO , broke above the 500 sma, BULLISH ENGULFING continues on list.
Bearish Patterns CC, breaking to the 200 sma Stock is on verge of big trouble. Possible another Kmart.
Education Tip of the Day:
PRICE OSCILLATOR Overview The Price Oscillator displays the difference between two moving averages of a securitys price. The difference between the moving averages can be expressed in either points or percentages. The Price Oscillator is almost identical to the MACD, except that the Price Oscillator can use any two user-specified moving averages. (The MACD always uses 12- and 26-day moving averages, and always expresses the difference in points.) Interpretation Moving average analysis typically generates buy signals when a short- term moving average (or the securitys price) rises above a longer- term moving average. Conversely, sell signals are generated when a shorter-term moving average (or the securitys price) falls below a longer-term moving average. The Price Oscillator illustrates the cyclical and often profitable signals generated by these one- or two- moving-average systems.
Date: Thu Jan 8, 2004 2:20 pm
Subject: Houston Advanced Class information
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Friday nite gathering in the Hilton lounge ( later out for dining together) for all and any interested in a good time.
Date: Thu Jan 8, 2004 8:22 pm
Subject: San Francisco, Ca "Advanced Equity Class" by David Elliott
David Elliott (First Wave) invites you to join us in San Francisco, Ca for the "Advanced Equity class" Date, Jan 17/18 Sat/ Sun.
8:30AM - 5:00PM
LOCATION Courtyard By Marriott Foster City San Francisco Bay Area
550 Shell Boulevard Foster City, CA 94404 US
Grads are Free/ materials $50.
Friday nite get to gether at local sports bar.
Date: Thu Jan 8, 2004 11:28 pm
Subject: LOOKING DOWN FROM DIZZY HEIGHTS
The market, DJ-30, closed + 63 points Thursday. DJ-30 closed at 10,592 COMPQX up +22 points at 2100
Sentiment: Longer term Bullish Market with sector rotation..
Current Outlook: The monthly trend for the market is up for January. The weekly trend for the market is up. The daily trend for Friday the markets are technically way over bought. Yesterday we got the gap up and market bubble type of day. Friday I expect someone to whisper "market bubble" as we see some profit taking after hitting our target highs of DJ-30 10,660's –70's. First DJ-30 support 10,489, and 10,300 First resistance COMPQX, 2025, This was broken Monday, it now should be a support and target for any selloff. There is a COMPQX resistance at 2288.
Big Picture: For the intra-day moves for the DJ-30 look at it's 30 and 60 minute MOBO's. The first major DJ-30 support is now 10,461. Taking out yesterday's DJ-30 open would send the market into sizable profit taking. The 1000 sma. remains in tact for the DJ-30 I continue to like to see 9.786 hold for any big dip low.
Sector/Industry Spotlight:
Bullish Sectors Processing Systems +7.9%
Percent of Sectors Bullish 71% Bearish 29%
Bearish Sectors Residential construction r –3.3%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The USD still finds support here in the 85. area after rallying to
86 and failing. This is the area for our first projected bounce last fall and it continues to hold.
GOLD: Gold is at $422 .90 and still holding over $400. Gold hit the $428.+ levels, then dropped below $420. It is in a new trading range. While gold stocks see profit taking. This is still looking like a top for a while, again. I still like the 50 sma for accumulation of Gold stock positions which is now a ways away for many gold stocks. NEM has a couple of dollars to go.
Hot Stocks I am not anxious to put on any new positions today, and did exit many of the opening gap Thursday. IMCL , SOAP and holding the 50 EDGW, MOBO and 50 sma move DMN, MOBO ready and 50 sma ready.
* Indicates a stock on a prior "Hot Stock" list.
Bear set-ups: JBSS, failed the MOBO, and 20 sma, heading to the 50 sma Bullish Patterns: none , at extreme end of run.
Bearish Patterns VGSN, breaking to the MOBO .
Education Tip of the Day:
FOUR PERCENT MODEL The Four Percent Model is a stock market timing tool based on the percent change of the weekly close of the (geometric) Value Line Composite Index. It is a trend following tool designed to keep you in the market during major up moves and out (or short) during major down moves. The Four Percent Model was developed by Ned Davis and popularized in Martin Zweig's book Winning on Wall Street. A significant strength of the Four Percent Model is its simplicity. The Model is easy to calculate and to analyze. In fact, only one piece of data is required--the weekly close of the Value Line Composite Index. A buy signal is generated when the index rises at least four percent from a previous value. A sell signal is generated when the index falls at least four percent. For example, a buy signal would be generated if the weekly close of the Value Line rose from 200 to 208 (a four percent rise). If the index subsequently rallied to 250 and then dropped below 240 (a four percent drop), a sell signal would be generated. From 1961 to 1992, a buy and hold approach on the Value Line Index would have yielded 149 points (3% annual return). Using the Four Percent Model (including shorts) during the same period would have yielded 584 points (13.6% annual return). Interestingly, about half of the signals generated were wrong. However, the average gain was much larger than the average loss--an excellent example of the stock market maxim "cut your losses short and let your profits run."
Date: Mon Jan 12, 2004 11:01 am
Subject: Bounce Due From Sell-Off
The market, DJ-30, closed - 133 points Friday. DJ-30 closed at 10,458 COMPQX down - 13 points at 2086
Sentiment: Longer term Bullish Market with sector rotation..
Current Outlook: The monthly trend for the market is up for January. The weekly trend for the market is sideways to down. The daily trend for Monday, the markets took a technical sell off Friday, and should see a bounce attempt.. Friday we got the profit taking day, and the reason for " add no new positions". Someone did whisper Friday. "Friday I expect someone to whisper "market bubble" as we see some profit taking after hitting our target highs of DJ-30 10,660's –
70's." First DJ-30 Resistance 10,502, hourly. First resistance COMPQX, 2025, This was broken Monday, it now should be a support and target for any sell-off. There is a COMPQX support at 2050.
Big Picture: For the intra-day moves for the DJ-30 look at it's 30 and 60 minute MOBO's. The first major DJ-30 support is now 10,461. The 1000 sma. remains in tact for the DJ-30 I continue to like to see 9.786 hold for any big dip low.
Sector/Industry Spotlight:
Bullish Sectors Silver +4.18% Percent of Sectors Bullish 71% Bearish 29%
Bearish Sectors Long Distance Carriers –3.3%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The USD broke the support 85. area by 25 points Friday enough to trigger new selling, should bounce here. This is the area for our first projected bounce from last fall and it continues to hold some what.
GOLD: Gold is at $422 .90 and still holding over $400. Gold hit the $428.+ levels, then dropped below $420. It is in a new trading range. While gold stocks see profit taking. This is still looking like a top for a while, again. I still like the 50 sma for accumulation of Gold stock positions which is now a ways away for many gold stocks. NEM has a couple of dollars to go.
Hot Stocks CMPX, on a breakout of $8.50 IMCL , SOAP and holding the 50
* Indicates a stock on a prior "Hot Stock" list.
Bear set-ups: BGP failed the MOBO, and 50 sma, Bullish Patterns: TASR, at extreme end of run.
Bearish Patterns ADO, accounting problems .
Education Tip of the Day:
BOLLINGER BANDS Bollinger Bands are similar to moving average envelopes. The difference between Bollinger Bands and envelopes is envelopes are plotted at a fixed percentage above and below a moving average, whereas Bollinger Bands are plotted at standard deviation levels above and below a moving average. Since standard deviation is a measure of volatility, the bands are self-adjusting: widening during volatile markets and contracting during calmer periods. Bollinger Bands were created by John Bollinger. Bollinger Bands are usually displayed on top of security prices, but they can be displayed on an indicator. These comments refer to bands displayed on prices. As with moving average envelopes, the basic interpretation of Bollinger Bands is that prices tend to stay within the upper- and lower-band. The distinctive characteristic of Bollinger Bands is that the spacing between the bands varies based on the volatility of the prices. During periods of extreme price changes (i.e., high volatility), the bands widen to become more forgiving. During periods of stagnant pricing (i.e., low volatility), the bands narrow to contain prices. Mr. Bollinger notes the following characteristics of Bollinger Bands. · Sharp price changes tend to occur after the bands tighten, as volatility lessens.
· When prices move outside the bands, a continuation of the current trend is implied.
· Bottoms and tops made outside the bands followed by bottoms and tops made inside the bands call for reversals in the trend.
· A move that originates at one band tends to go all the way to the other band. This observation is useful when projecting price targets.
Date: Tue Jan 13, 2004 8:46 am
Subject: More Bull Steam
The market, DJ-30, closed + 26 Monday. DJ-30 closed at 10,485 COMPQX down +25 points at 2111
Sentiment: Longer term Bullish Market with sector rotation..
Current Outlook: The monthly trend for the market is up for January. The weekly trend for the market is sideways to down for DJ-30, up for NASD The daily trend for Tuesday: the markets took a technical bounce, and should see some more up move. We have option expiration this week, some volatility could enter with some good intra-day mkt swings. First DJ-30 Resistance #1 , 10,506, #2, 10,516 hourly. First resistance COMPQX, 2126, There is a COMPQX support at 2097. QQQ Resistance 38.50|, support 37.97
Big Picture: For the intra-day moves for the DJ-30 look at it's 30 and 60 minute MOBO's. The first major DJ-30 support is now 10,428. Upper Target for DJ-30 is the 10,560-70, a prior mkt pivot and the upper band of the LR-30 deviation channel. The 1000 sma. remains in tact for the DJ-30 I continue to like to see 10,000 hold for any big dip low.
Sector/Industry Spotlight:
Bullish Sectors Computers Wholesale +3.7% Percent of Sectors Bullish 68% Bearish 32%
Bearish Sectors Staffing and Outsourcing –3.3%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The USD: we did bounce after we broke the support 85. area by 25 points Friday. This is the area for our first projected bounce from last fall and it continues to hold some what. The hourly gave a MOBO buy signal yesterday at 7AM, 85.32 would violate the support.
GOLD: Gold is at $425.20 and still holding over $400. Gold hit the $428.+ levels, then dropped below $420. It is in a new trading range. While gold stocks see profit taking. This is still looking like a top for a while, again. It is in a sideways channel now. I still like the 50 sma for accumulation of Gold stock positions which is now a ways away for many gold stocks. NEM has a couple of dollars to go, just about there .
Hot Stocks CMPX, * (yesterday mover) IMCL , * (yesterday mover)
CMRG, at the MOBO, 20 breakout point, kicker FDX, kicker, MOBO ready above yesterday's highs. GLGS, SOAP, needs MOBO now. ACTI, SOAP, needs MOBO now NENG, possible SOAP today, and MOBO, on watch list. CMRG, a SOAP and MOBO breakout and kicker.
* Indicates a stock on a prior "Hot Stock" list.
Bear set-ups: ABI failed the MOBO, and 200 sma, Bullish Patterns: WMI a 50sma bounce play with a SOAP
Bearish Patterns TS, heading to the 50 sma . Educatition Tip of the Day
Depository Receipts http://www.adrbny.com/ Everything you wanted to know about foreign stocks traded in the USA.
Date: Wed Jan 14, 2004 9:49 am
Subject: Overbought Market is letting off Pressure
The market, DJ-30, closed - 58 points Tuesday DJ-30 closed at 10,427 COMPQX down - 15 points at 2096
Sentiment: Longer term Bullish Market with sector rotation..
Current Outlook: The monthly trend for the market is up for January. The weekly trend for the market is sideways to down. The daily trend for Wednesday: the markets will open to the upside and try to hold morning gains. Upward momentum is slowing.
First DJ-30 Resistance 10,500, hourly. First resistance COMPQX, 2114, There is a COMPQX support at 2074.
Big Picture: For the intra-day moves for the DJ-30 look at it's 30 and 60 minute MOBO's. The first major DJ-30 support is now 10,372. The 1000 sma. remains in tact for the DJ-30 I continue to like to see 9.786 hold for any big dip low.
Sector/Industry Spotlight:
Bullish Sectors Hobby stores +6.35% Percent of Sectors Bullish 47% Bearish 53%
Bearish Sectors in Semiconductor specialized –3.6%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The USD is now holding the support 85. area . This is the area for our first projected bounce from last fall and it continues to hold. We currently have long signals for the USD.
GOLD: Gold is at $419 .10 and still holding over $400. Gold hit the $428.+ levels, a top. It is in a new trading range. While gold stocks see profit taking. This is still looking like a top for a while, again. I still like the 50 sma for accumulation of Gold stock positions which is now a ways away for many gold stocks. NEM has hit the 50 sma.
Hot Stocks PETD, on a bounce of the 50 sma MOBE a SOAP and MOBO coming here. METX a 50 sma bounce and MOBO
* Indicates a stock on a prior "Hot Stock" list.
Bear set-ups: ASA failed the MOBO, and 50 sma, Bullish Patterns: SASR, at 200 sma bounce
Bearish Patterns BLDP, failed 50 .
Education Tip of the Day:
50 SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE. This average is the deciding factor of a stocks up and down destiny. It generates specific price patterns when tested and when failed.
Date: Thu Jan 15, 2004 8:55 am
Subject: Market Likes IBM news, Not so Hot on INTC
The market, DJ-30, closed up +111 points Wednesday. DJ-30 closed at 10,538 COMPQX up +14 points at 2111
Sentiment: Longer term Bullish Market with sector rotation..
Current Outlook: The monthly trend for the market is up for January. The weekly trend for the market is sideways, to down. The daily trend for Thursday: the markets will open to the downside and try to move up and hold gains. First DJ-30 Support 10,503, hourly. First resistance COMPQX, 2114, There is a COMPQX support at 2099.
Big Picture: For the intra-day moves for the DJ-30 look at it's 30 and 60 minute MOBO's. The first major DJ-30 support is now 10,055. The 1000 sma. remains in tact for the DJ-30 I continue to like to see 10,000 hold for any big dip low.
Sector/Industry Spotlight:
Bullish Sectors Home Furnishings +4.11% Percent of Sectors Bullish 88% Bearish 12%
Bearish Sectors in Silver –6.6%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The USD is now holding the support 85. area and into the 86 area. This is the area for our first projected bounce from last fall and it continues to hold. We currently have long signals for the USD. We are above the daily MOBO bands.
GOLD: Gold is at $415 .10. Gold hit the $428.+ levels, a top. It is in a profit taking move. While gold stocks also see profit taking. This continues to still look like a top for a while. I still like the 50 sma for accumulation of Gold stock but many now have broken that level and will wait to see price conformation. The USD is going to continue to put pressure on gold as it continues to rally.
.
Hot Stocks CKSW BLL, Shanghui Duo, bounce off the 50 sma, SOAP CSC, SOAP, start of wave 3. (on price conformation) SSYS, up move will trigger MOBO, and snap back. HMA, MOBO breakout. PDCO, base in, should go to upper MOBO bands.
* Indicates a stock on a prior "Hot Stock" list.
Bear set-ups: WPSC failed the MOBO, and 20 sma, Bullish Patterns: CBK, SOAP, should fill gap.
Bearish Patterns Gold stocks, that failed the 50 sma
Education Tip of the Day:
LARGE BLOCK RATIO This market sentiment indicator shows the relationship between large block trades, which are trades of more than 10,000 shares, and the total volume on the New York Stock Exchange. The comparison of large block trades to total volume shows how active the large institutional traders are. The higher the Large Block Ratio, the more institutional activity is taking place. To smooth out the day-to-day fluctuations, I recommend plotting a 20-day moving average of the Large Block Ratio. A high number of Large Block trades in relation to total volume often coincides with market tops and bottoms. This occurs as institutions recognize the extreme overbought or oversold conditions of the market and place trades accordingly. Of course, this assumes the institutions know what they are doing!
Date: Fri Jan 16, 2004 1:06 am
Subject: Option Expitation Day
The market, DJ-30, closed up +15 points Thursday. DJ-30 closed at 10,553 COMPQX down -2 points at 2109
Sentiment: Longer term Bullish Market with sector rotation..
Current Outlook: The monthly trend for the market is up for January. The weekly trend for the market is sideways, to down. The daily trend for Friday: Option expiration day! I expect volatility. First DJ-30 Support 10,503, hourly. (Thursday's hourly close to the dollar) Friday 10,506. First resistance COMPQX, 2114, There is a COMPQX support at 2099.
Big Picture: For the intra-day moves for the DJ-30 look at it's 30 and 60 minute MOBO's. The first major DJ-30 support is now 10,055. The 1000 sma. remains in tact for the DJ-30 I continue to like to see 10,000 hold for any big dip low.
Sector/Industry Spotlight:
Bullish Sectors Home Furnishings +4.8% Second day in a row. Percent of Sectors Bullish 88% Bearish 12%
Bearish Sectors in Silver –10.6% second day in a row.
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The USD is now holding the support 85. area and into the 86 area closing strong. This is the area for our first projected bounce from last fall and it continues to hold, and reverse upward! We currently have long signals for the USD. We are above the daily MOBO bands!
GOLD: Gold is at $408.20. Gold hit the $428.+ levels, a top. It is in a profit taking move. Gold stocks also are seeing profit taking. This continues to still look like a top for a while. Gold support is the $400-$398.00 area I still like the 50 sma for accumulation of Gold stock but many now have broken that level and will wait to see price conformation. The USD is going to continue to put pressure on gold as the USD continues to rally.
.
Hot Stocks FORM DYIIE, CHRB, ISSC PXR IPAR CHK, (watch for a move off the 50 sma) CNB DBD
* Indicates a stock on a prior "Hot Stock" list.
Bear set-ups: PROG failed the MOBO, and 20 sma, Bullish Patterns: TTEK*,intra-day buy pick, into day three now, today.
Bearish Patterns AVII, failed the 50 sma
Education Tip of the Day:
DRs: The Basics & Benefits
The Bank of New York is the world's largest depositary for American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and Global Depositary Receipts (GDRs); www.adrbny.com is a leading source for international ADR and GDR market intelligence and select investor information. DRs, which include ADRs, GDRs, Euro DRs (Euro Depositary Receipts), and NYSs (New York Shares), allow non-U.S. companies to offer dollar- denominated and euro-denominated securities to investors around the world. If you are involved in international investing, whether as an individual or institutional investor, a market analyst or a member of the financial media, we can provide you with useful information on the international equity markets.
An Overview of Depositary Receipts
Depositary Receipts (DRs), which include ADRs, GDRs, Euro DRs and NYSs, are negotiable U.S. securities that generally represent a non- U.S. company's publicly traded equity. Although typically denominated in U.S. dollars, Depositary Receipts can also be denominated in Euros. Depositary Receipts can be eligible to trade on all U.S. stock exchanges as well as on many European stock exchanges.The increasing demand for Depositary Receipts is driven by the desire of individual and institutional investors to diversify their portfolios, reduce risk and invest internationally in the most efficient manner possible. While most investors recognize the benefits of global diversification, they also understand the challenges presented when investing directly in local trading markets. These obstacles can include inefficient trade settlements, uncertain custody services and costly currency conversions. Depositary Receipts overcome many of the inherent operational and custodial hurdles of international investing. In fact, cost benefits and conveniences may be realized through Depositary Receipt investing, thus allowing those who invest internationally to achieve the benefits of global diversification without the added expense and complexities of investing directly in the local trading markets. What are Depositary Receipts? Benefits to a Company Benefits to an Investor Types of Depositary Receipt Facilities Sponsored Level I Depositary Receipts Sponsored Level II and Sponsored Level III Depositary Receipts Privately Placed and Offshore (SEC Rule
144A/Reg S) Depositary Receipts How Depositary Receipts Trade World Leader in Depositary ReceiptsWhat are Depositary Receipts?A Depositary Receipt is a negotiable U.S. security that generally represents a company's publicly traded equity or debt. Depositary Receipts are created when a broker purchases the non-U.S. company's shares on the home stock market and delivers those to the depositary's local custodian bank, which then instructs the depositary bank, such as The Bank of New York, to issue Depositary Receipts. In addition, Depositary Receipts may also be purchased in the U.S. secondary trading market. Depositary Receipts may trade freely, just like any other security, either on an exchange or in the over-the-counter market and can be used to raise capital.Depositary Receipts may be more specifically called American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), Rule 144A Depositary Receipts or Global Depositary Receipts (GDRs). These names typically identify the market in which the Depositary Receipts are available: ADRs are publicly available to U.S. investors on a national stock exchange or in the over-the-counter market; Rule 144A ADRs are privately placed and resold only to Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs) in the U.S. QIB PORTAL market; and GDRs are generally available in one or more markets outside the foreign company's home country, although these may also be known as ADRs. Benefits to a Company Currently, there are over 2,000 Depositary Receipt programs for companies from over
70 countries. The establishment of a Depositary Receipt program offers numerous advantages to non-U.S.companies. The primary reasons to establish a Depositary Receipt program can be divided into two broad considerations: capital and commercial. Advantages may include: Expanded market share through broadened and more diversified investor exposure with potentially greater liquidity, which may increase or stabilize the share price. Enhanced visibility and image for the company's products, services and financial instruments in a marketplace outside its home country. Flexible mechanism for raising capital and a vehicle or currency for mergers and acquisitions. Enables employees of U.S. subsidiaries of non-U.S. companies to invest more easily in the parent company. Benefits to an Investor Increasingly, investors aim to diversify their portfolios internationally. However, obstacles such as undependable settlements, costly currency conversions, unreliable custody services, poor information flow, unfamiliar market practices, confusing tax conventions and internal investment policy may discourage institutions and private investors from venturing outside their local market. Depositary Receipt advantages may include: Quotation in U.S. dollars and payment of dividends or interest in U.S. dollars. Diversification without many of the obstacles that mutual funds, pension funds and other institutions may have in purchasing and holding securities outside of their local market. Elimination of global custodian safekeeping charges, potentially saving Depositary Receipt investors up to 10 to 40 basis points annually. Familiar trade, clearance and settlement procedures. Competitive U.S. dollar/foreign exchange rate conversions for dividends and other cash distributions. Ability to acquire the underlying securities directly upon cancellation. Types of Depositary Receipt Facilities Depositary Receipt facilities may be unsponsored and sponsored. Unsponsored Depositary Receipts are issued by one or more depositaries in response to market demand, but without a formal agreement with the company. Today, unsponsored Depositary Receipts are considered obsolete and are rarely established due to lack of control over the facility and potential hidden costs. Sponsored Depositary Receipts may be issued in different "levels" available in various trading markets and are issued by one depositary appointed by the company under a Deposit Agreement or service contract. Sponsored Depositary Receipts offer control over the facility, the flexibility to list on a U.S. or European stock exchange and the ability to raise capital. Sponsored Level I Depositary Receipts A Sponsored Level I Depositary Receipt program is the simplest method for companies to access the U.S. and non-U.S. capital markets. Level I Depositary Receipts are traded in the U.S. over-the-counter (OTC) market with prices published in the "Pink Sheets" and on some exchanges outside the United States. Establishment of a Level I program does not require full SEC registration and the company does not have to report its accounts under U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) or provide full Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) disclosure. Essentially, a Sponsored Level I Depositary Receipt program allows companies to enjoy the benefits of a publicly traded security without changing its current reporting process.The Sponsored Level I Depositary Receipt market is the fastest growing segment of the Depositary Receipt business. The majority of sponsored programs are Level I facilities. In addition, because of the benefits of Depositary Receipt investing, it is not unusual for a company with a Level I program to obtain 5 percent to 15 percent of its shareholder base in Depositary Receipt form. Many well-known multinational companies have established such programs. In addition, numerous companies have started with a Level I program and then upgraded to a Level II (listing) or Level III (offering) program.Sponsored Level II and Sponsored Level III Depositary ReceiptsCompanies that wish to list their Depositary Receipts on a U.S. stock exchange (NASDAQ, American or New York), raise capital or make an acquisition using securities, use Sponsored Level II or Sponsored Level III Depositary Receipts. Level II and Level III Depositary Receipt programs require SEC registration and adherence to applicable requirements for U.S. GAAP. These types of Depositary Receipts can also be listed on some exchanges outside the United States. Level II Depositary Receipts are exchange-listed securities but do not involve raising new capital. Level III programs typically generate the most U.S. investor interest because capital is being raised. Generally, companies that choose either a Level II or Level III program will attract a significant number of U.S. investors.Privately Placed and Offshore (SEC Rule 144A / Regulation S) Depositary Receipts In addition to the three levels of sponsored Depositary Receipt programs that trade publicly in the U.S., a company can also access the U.S. and other capital markets through SEC Rule 144A and/or SEC Regulation S Depositary Receipt facilities without SEC registration. Rule 144A programs provide for raising capital through the private placement of Depositary Receipts with large institutional investors (often referred to as "QIBs") in the United States. Regulation S programs provide for raising capital through the placement of Depositary Receipts offshore to non-U.S. investors in reliance on Regulation S. A Level I program can be established along side a Rule
144A program and a Regulation S program may be merged into a Level I program after the restricted period has expired.
How Depositary Receipts Trade
DescriptionA Depositary Receipt is a negotiable security which represents the underlying securities (generally equity shares) of a non-U.S. company. Depositary Receipts facilitate U.S. investor purchases of non-U.S. securities and allow non-U.S. companies to have their stock trade in the United States by reducing or eliminating settlement delays, high transaction costs, and other potential inconveniences associated with international securities trading. Depositary Receipts are treated in the same manner as other U.S. securities for clearance, settlement, transfer, and ownership purposes. Depositary Receipts can also represent debt securities or preferred stock.The Depositary Receipt is issued by a U.S. depositary bank, such as The Bank of New York, when the underlying shares are deposited in a local custodian bank, usually by a broker who has purchased the shares in the open market. Once issued, these certificates may be freely traded in the U.S. over-the-counter market or, upon compliance with U.S. SEC regulations, on a national stock exchange. When the Depositary Receipt holder sells, the Depositary Receipt can either be sold to another U.S. investor or it can be canceled and the underlying shares can be sold to a non-U.S. investor. In the latter case, the Depositary Receipt certificate would be surrendered and the shares held with the local custodian bank would be released back into the home market and sold to a broker there. Additionally, the Depositary Receipt holder would be able to request delivery of the actual shares at any time. The Depositary Receipt certificate states the responsibilities of the depositary bank with respect to actions such as payment of dividends, voting at shareholder meetings, and handling of rights offerings.Depositary Receipts (DRs) in American or Global form (ADRs and GDRs, respectively) are used to facilitate cross-border trading and to raise capital in global equity offerings or for mergers and acquisitions to U.S. and non-U.S. investors. Demand For Depositary ReceiptsThe demand by investors for Depositary Receipts has been growing between 30 to 40 percent annually, driven in large part by the increasing desire of retail and institutional investors to diversify their portfolios globally. Many of these investors typically do not, or cannot for various reasons, invest directly outside of the U.S. and, as a result, utilize Depositary Receipts as a means to diversify their portfolios. Many investors who do have the capabilities to invest outside the U.S. may prefer to utilize Depositary Receipts because of the convenience, enhanced liquidity and cost effectiveness Depositary Receipts offer as compared to purchasing and safekeeping ordinary shares in the home country. In many cases, a Depositary Receipt investment can save an investor up to 10-40 basis points annually as compared to all of the costs associated with trading and holding ordinary shares outside the United States. IssuanceDepositary Receipts are issued or created when investors decide to invest in a non-U.S. company and contact their brokers to make a purchase. These brokers, through their international offices or through a local broker in the company's home market, purchase the underlying ordinary shares and request that the shares be delivered to the depositary bank's custodian in that country. The broker who initiated the transaction will convert the U.S. dollars received from the investor into the corresponding foreign currency and pay the local broker for the shares purchased. On the same day that the shares are delivered to the custodian bank, the custodian notifies the depositary bank. Upon such notification, Depositary Receipts are issued and delivered to the initiating broker, who then delivers the Depositary Receipts evidencing the shares to the investor. Your broker can also obtain Depositary Receipts by purchasing existing Depositary Receipts, which is not a new issuance. Transfer - (Intra-Market Trading) Once Depositary Receipts are issued, they are tradable in the United States and like other U.S. securities, they can be freely sold to other investors. Depositary Receipts may be sold to subsequent U.S. investors by simply transferring them from the existing Depositary Receipt holder (seller) to another Depositary Receipt holder (buyer); this is known as an intra-market transaction. An intra-market transaction is settled in the same manner as any other U.S. security purchase: in U.S. dollars on the third business day after the trade date and typically through The Depository Trust Company (DTC). Intra-market trading accounts for approximately 95 percent of all Depositary Receipt trading in the market today. Accordingly, the most important role of a depositary bank is that of Stock Transfer Agent and Registrar. It is therefore critical that the depositary bank maintain sophisticated stock transfer systems and operating capabilities. CancellationWhen investors want to sell their Depositary Receipts, they notify their broker. The broker can either sell the Depositary Receipts in the U.S. market through an intra- market transaction or sell the shares outside of the U.S., typically into the home market through a cross-border transaction. In cross- border transactions, brokers, either through their international offices or through a local broker in the company's home market, will sell the shares back into the home market. In order to settle the trade, the U.S. broker will surrender the Depositary Receipt to the depositary bank with instructions to deliver the shares to the buyer in the home market. The depositary bank will cancel the Depositary Receipt and instruct the custodian to release the underlying shares and deliver them to the local broker who purchased the shares. The broker will arrange for the foreign currency to be converted into U.S. dollars for payment to the Depositary Receipt holder. Trading - (Pricing)Once Depositary Receipts are issued and there are an adequate number of Depositary Receipts outstanding in the U.S. market (usually three percent to six percent of the company's shares in Depositary Receipt form) a true intra-market trading market emerges. Until this market develops, the majority of Depositary Receipt purchases result in Depositary Receipt issuances upon the deposit of shares. When executing a Depositary Receipt trade, brokers seek to obtain the best price by comparing the Depositary Receipt price in U.S. dollars to the dollar equivalent price of the actual shares in the home market. Brokers will buy or sell in the market that offers them the best price and they can do so in three ways: by issuing a new Depositary Receipt, transferring an existing Depositary Receipt or canceling a Depositary Receipt. For example, if the price of the actual shares in the home market is $12.28 per share after allowing for foreign currency translation, and the Depositary Receipt is selling for $12.30, the broker will buy shares and issue Depositary Receipts until the price of the ordinary shares increases to $12.30, at which time the broker will simply buy and sell the existing Depositary Receipts that are outstanding in the market. The broker may also be holding an inventory of ordinary shares, in which case the local trading price is irrelevant.The continuous buying and selling of Depositary Receipts in either market tends to keep the price differential between the local and U.S. markets to a minimum. As a result, about 95 percent of Depositary Receipt trading is done in the form of intra-market trading and does not involve the issuance or cancellation of a Depositary Receipt. Equity OfferingsWhen a non-U.S. company completes an offering of new shares, part of which will be sold as Depositary Receipts in the U.S. or international market, the company will deliver the shares to the depositary bank's local custodian at the time of the closing. The depositary bank will then issue the corresponding Depositary Receipts and deliver them to the members of the underwriting syndicate. With this pool of Depositary Receipts, a regular trading market commences where Depositary Receipts can then be issued, transferred or canceled. World Leader in Depositary ReceiptsThe Bank of New York is the leading depositary bank, managing substantially more sponsored Depositary Receipt programs than any other depositary bank. We currently issue Depositary Receipts for more than 1,400 programs with companies from 70 countries. Our leadership in the Depositary Receipts industry is exemplified by our appointment as depositary bank for 65 percent of all public sponsored Depositary Receipt programs. Our overall success is based upon our unique, value-added services; technologically advanced securities servicing operating capabilities; specialized approach to each market we service; personalized administrative support and overall commitment to securities servicing.Please refer to the Complete DR Directory for a comprehensive list of Depositary Receipt programs. This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. Please refer to Terms Of Use.
DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS: NOT FDIC, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY INSURED MAY LOSE VALUE NO BANK, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY GUARANTEE.
Date: Tue Jan 20, 2004 9:05 am
Subject: Market Upper Targets Now in Range.
The market, DJ-30, closed up +46 points Friday. DJ-30 closed at 10,600 COMPQX up +31 points at 2140
Sentiment: Longer term Bullish Market with sector rotation..
Current Outlook: The monthly trend for the market is up for January. The weekly trend for the market is up. The daily trend for Monday: Opening up in the morning, selling in afternoon. First DJ-30 resistance 10,660-70. First DJ-30 Support 10,515, hourly. Next resistance COMPQX, 2188, There is a COMPQX support at 2102.
1 Big Picture: For the intra-day moves for the DJ-30 look at it's 30 and 60 minute MOBO's. The first major DJ-30 support is now 10,084. The 1000 sma. remains in tact for the DJ-30 I continue to like to see 10,000 hold for any big dip low.
Sector/Industry Spotlight:
Bullish Sectors Networking +9.6% Percent of Sectors Bullish 70% Bearish 30%
Bearish Sectors in Staffing –Outsourcing –3.6%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The USD is now holding the support 85. area and into the 87- 88 area.. This is the area for our first projected bounce from last fall and it continues to hold, and reverse upward! We currently have long signals for the USD. We are above the daily MOBO bands!
GOLD: Gold is at $408.60. Gold hit the $428.+ levels, a top. It is in a profit taking move. Gold stocks also are seeing profit taking. This continues to still look like a top for a while. Gold support is the $400-$398.00 area I still like to watch the 50 sma for accumulation of Gold stock but many now have broken that level and will wait to see price conformation. The USD is going to continue to put pressure on gold as the USD continues to rally.
.
Hot Stocks GGNS , kicker, needs MOBO breakout. ITMN, boncing on the 200 sma, NG, Gold having a bounce. PRX, SOAP, heading to upper band. MLNM, kicker, SOAP.
Less that $5. INTZ GADZ
* Indicates a stock on a prior "Hot Stock" list.
Bear set-ups: GLYN failed the MOBO, and 50 sma, Bullish Patterns: CRAY*,Should continue up *.
Bearish Patterns PTRY,, failed the MOBO, and heading to the 50 Sma.
Education Tip of the Day:
ODD LOT BALANCE INDEX
The Odd Lot Balance Index ("OLBI") is a market sentiment indicator that shows the ratio of odd lot sales to purchases (an "odd lot" is a stock transaction of less than 100 shares). The assumption is that the "odd lotters," the market's smallest traders, don't know what they are doing. (Unfortunately, the trading of 99 share lots in an effort to skirt the "up-tick" rule, which requires that specialists take short positions only when prices move upward, has rendered odd lot indicators less reliable.)
When the Odd Lot Balance Index is high, odd lotters are selling more than they are buying and are therefore bearish on the market. To trade contrarily to the odd lotters, you should buy when they are selling (as indicated by a high OLBI) and sell when the odd lotters are bullish and buying (as indicated by a low OLBI). You can smooth day-to-day fluctuations of the Odd Lot Balance Index by plotting a 10-day moving average of the Index.
Date: Wed Jan 21, 2004 8:50 am
Subject: SPLIT INDEXES UP AND DOWN
The market, DJ-30, closed down -71 points Tuesday. DJ-30 closed at 10,528 COMPQX up +7 points at 2148
Sentiment: Longer term Bullish Market with sector rotation..
Current Outlook: The monthly trend for the market is up for January. The weekly trend for the market is up. The daily trend for Friday: Opening down in the morning, selling in afternoon. First DJ-30 resistance 10,660-70. First DJ-30 Support 10,513, hourly. Next resistance COMPQX, 2188, There is a COMPQX support at 2127, and
2110. QQQ supports, 38.37, and 38.13
Big Picture: For the intra-day moves for the DJ-30 look at it's 30 and 60 minute MOBO's. The first major DJ-30 support is now 10,456, and 10,098.. The 1000 sma. remains in tact for the DJ-30 I continue to like to see 10,000 hold for any big dip low.
Sector/Industry Spotlight:
Bullish Sectors Silver +6.0% Percent of Sectors Bullish 72% Bearish 28%
Bearish Sectors in Diversified Machenery. –2.1%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The USD is now holding the support 85. area and resistance in the 87-
88 area.. This is the area for our first projected bounce from last fall and it continues to hold, and reverse upward! We currently have long signals for the USD. We are above the daily MOBO bands!
..
GOLD: Gold is at $410.40. Gold hit the $428.+ levels, a top. It is in a profit taking move. Gold stocks also are seeing profit taking. This continues to still look like a top for a while. Gold support is the $400-$398.00 area. I still like to watch the 50 sma for accumulation of Gold stock but many now have broken that level and will wait to see price conformation. The USD is going to continue to put pressure on gold as the USD continues to rally.
.
Hot Stocks NUVO , Bull engulfing, still a MOBO breakout. TRP, kicker back into MOBO. BRL, kicker back into MOBO PHI, SOAP. SNP, kicker back above MOBO UPL, Yesterday's intra-day buy. CLB, successfully testing 50 sma,
* Indicates a stock on a prior "Hot Stock" list.
Bear set-ups: SIFY Bear engulfing., Bullish Patterns: CEO, Kicker above MOBO. .
Bearish Patterns PMTI,, failed the MOBO, and heading to the 50 Sma.
Education Tip of the Day:
PUBLIC SHORT RATIO The Public Short Ratio ("PSR") shows the relationship between the number of public short sales and the total number of short sales. (The Public Short Ratio is sometimes referred to as the non-member short ratio.) The interpretation of the PSR assumes one premise: that of the short sellers, the public is the worst (well, except for the odd lot traders whose indicators begin with the Odd Lot Balance Index). If this is true, then we should buy when the public is shorting and sell when the public is long. Historically, this premise has held true. Generally speaking, the higher the PSR, the more bearish the public, and the more likely prices will increase (given the above premise). Historically, it has been considered bullish when the 10-week moving average of the PSR is above 25% and bearish when the moving average is below 25%. The further the moving average is in the bullish or bearish territory, the more likely it is that a correction/ rally will take place. Also, the longer the indicator is in the bullish/bearish territory, the better the chances of a market move. For more information on the PSR, I suggest reading the discussion on the non-member short ratio in Stock Market Logic, by Norman G. Fosback.
Date: Thu Jan 22, 2004 9:12 am
Subject: Earnings Reports in Full Blast
The market, DJ-30, closed up + 94 points Wednesday. DJ-30 closed at 10,623 COMPQX down – 5.5 points at 2148
Sentiment: Longer term Bullish Market with sector rotation..
Current Outlook: The monthly trend for the market is up for January. The weekly trend for the market is up. The daily trend for Thursday: Opening up in the morning, market target likely to be hit today, in afternoon. First DJ-30 target resistance 10,660-70. First DJ-30 Support
10,562, and 10,518, hourly. Next resistance COMPQX, 2188, There is a COMPQX support at 2135,
2129 .and 2115. QQQ supports, 38.17, and 37.94
Big Picture: For the intra-day moves for the DJ-30 look at it's 30 and 60 minute MOBO's. The first major DJ-30 support is now 10,456, and 10,098.. The 1000 sma. remains in tact for the DJ-30 I continue to like to see 10,000 hold for any big dip low.
Sector/Industry Spotlight:
Bullish Sectors Residential construction +4.3% Percent of Sectors Bullish 72% Bearish 28%
Bearish Sectors in Data Storage Devices –7.8%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The USD is now holding the support 85. area and resistance in the 87-
88 area.. This is the area for our first projected bounce from last fall and it continues to hold, We are treading water in the 86 area.! We currently have long signals for the USD. We are inside the daily MOBO bands!
..
GOLD: Gold is at $412.50. Gold hit the $428.+ levels, a top. It was in a profit taking move. Gold stocks saw profit taking and are now bouncing up with buy signals. This continues to still look like a top for a while. Gold support is the $400-$398.00 area. I still like to watch the 50 sma for accumulation of Gold stock but many now have broken that level and will wait to see price and technical conformation. The USD will to continue to put pressure on gold as the USD tries to rally.
.
Hot Stocks RGEN , Bull engulfing, a MOBO breakout. Intra-day long call yesterday. INTC, Bouncing off support, should test the 50 sma, long yesterday intra-day. UAIR. Bulll Engulfing candle, SOAP buy. ARTX, Watch for move back over the 50 sma and MOBO. PTN, breakout of MOBO, snap back to new highs. RYL, BXH, HOV, Home builders on the move, Intra-day call yesterday.
* Indicates a stock on a prior "Hot Stock" list.
Bear set-ups: CACS, heading to the 50 sma. Bullish Patterns: FTUSQ, SOAP, and bull engulfing candle.. .
Bearish Patterns INVX,, failed the MOBO, and heading to the 50 Sma.
Education Tip of the Day:
http://www.kitco.com/
Latest Gold, Silver, other metals. Currency and US dollar quotes. Ticker for live gold for your Utility bar.
Date: Fri Jan 23, 2004 8:41 am
Subject: More Earnings, Top Market Target Hit
The market, DJ-30, closed unchanged Thursday. DJ-30 closed at 10,623 COMPQX down – 23.5 points at 2119
Sentiment: Longer term Bullish Market with sector rotation..
Current Outlook: The monthly trend for the market is up for January. The weekly trend for the market is Sideways. The daily trend for Friday: Opening mixed in the morning, moving up in afternoon. Thursday the markets hit our target highs for this current move. A market dip or consolidation is now expected. First DJ-30 Intra-day target resistance 10,660-70 TOP. First DJ-30 Support 10,582, and 10,541, hourly. COMPQX, at projected support from yesterday, 2129 .next support at
2110-06. QQQ supports, 38.05, and resistance 37.33-37.
Big Picture: For the intra-day moves for the DJ-30 look at it's 30 and 60 minute MOBO's. The first major DJ-30 support is now 10,487, and 10,129.. The 1000 sma. remains in tact for the DJ-30 I continue to like to see 10,000 hold for any big dip low.
Sector/Industry Spotlight:
Bullish Sectors Major Airlines +5.6% Percent of Sectors Bullish 45% Bearish 55%
Bearish Sectors in Processing Systems –5.2%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The USD is now holding the support 85. area and resistance in the 87-
88 area.. This is the area for our first projected bounce from last fall and it continues to hold, We currently have long signals for the USD. We are inside the daily MOBO bands, lower support is 85.50
..
GOLD: Gold is at $412.50. Gold hit the $428.+ levels, a top. This continues to still look like a top for a while Gold is a profit taking move. Gold is hugging the 50 sma, looks like a break coming today. Gold support is the $400-$398.00 area. I still like to watch the 50 sma for accumulation of Gold stocks, but many now have broken that level and will wait to see price and technical conformation. The USD will to continue to put pressure on gold as the USD tries to rally.
.
Hot Stocks NWRE, kicker, SOAP IPAS, intra-day buy signal, should continue. RESP, kicker, SOAP ONXX, kicker, SOAP PACW, bull engulfing , suggests higher run. VWKS, 50 sma test breakout. UVN, based, moving higher. CCUR, back on watch list.
Less than $2.00 HMSL, trying to breakout of the 500 sma. GADZ, still on our long list. *
* Indicates a stock on a prior "Hot Stock" list.
Bear set-ups: IFLO, Double Doji top, 50 sma support. Bullish Patterns: FTUSQ*, SOAP, and bull engulfing candle.. .
Bearish Patterns SSYS,, failed the MOBO, and under the 50 Sma.
Date: Mon Jan 26, 2004 8:57 am
Subject: Monday Soft Open
The market, DJ-30, closed –54 points Friday. DJ-30 closed at 10,568 COMPQX up +4 points at 2123
Sentiment: Longer term Bullish Market with sector rotation..
Current Outlook: The monthly trend for the market is up for January. The weekly trend for the market is sideways/ down The daily trend for Monday: Any rallies should turn over and retest Friday's lows. Thursday, 1/22, the markets hit our posted target highs for this current move. A market dip or consolidation is now expected. First DJ-30 Intra-day target resistance 10,599. support 10538-30 COMPQX, at projected support from yesterday, 2072. First resistance
2129 QQQ supports, 38.05, and resistance 37.48, First target 38.24
Big Picture: For the intra-day moves for the DJ-30 look at it's 30 and 60 minute MOBO's. The first major DJ-30 support is now 10,487, and 10,129.. The 1000 sma. remains in tact for the DJ-30 I continue to like to see 10,000 hold for any big dip low.
Sector/Industry Spotlight:
Bullish Sectors Oil and Gas Equipment +4.3% Percent of Sectors Bullish 45% Bearish 55%
Bearish Sectors in Semi-conductor Equipment –3.5%
US DOLLAR & GOLD, The USD is now holding the support 85. area and resistance in the 87-
88 area.. This is the area for our first projected bounce from last fall and it continues to hold, We currently have long signals for the USD. We are inside the daily MOBO bands, lower support is 85.50 and above the 20 Sma.
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GOLD: Gold is at $406.50. Gold hit the $428.+ levels, a top. This continues to still look like a top for a while Gold is a profit taking move. Gold was hugging the 50 sma, looks like Friday's break continuing. Gold support is the $400-$398.00 area. I still like to watch the 50 sma for accumulation of Gold stocks, but many now have broken that level and will wait to see price, and technical conformation. The USD will to continue to put pressure on gold as the USD tries to rally.
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Hot Stocks
LDL. Breaking back inside MOBO, first target 50 sma. SVM, bounce off 100 sma, target 50 sma. SEAC , wave 2 completion, starting wave 3. CVTX breakout 50 sma CAM . breakout 500 sma. COST follow thru of Friday post on intra-day kicker. NTBK, bounce 200 sma. ELP, bounce 50 sma RTH, breakout 50 sma CPS, back to 50 sma, watch list.
ENGULFING CANDLESTICK STOCKS. GLOW, new high close EMBX, 500 sma breakout, volume a little light. AD, new highs OSUR, breakout SPN breakout HUGO, new stock off bottom. IDXX, 50 sma breakout. PPD, 500 sma, bounce targer 50 sma at $25.50 TNL, Shanghui Duo., target the 50 sma. SVM, back to the 50 sma. KVHI, MOBO breakout INFY, 50 sma bounce and gap LSS,* last week chat post, breakout over the 50 and 20 sma. NWSB, breakout of 50 sma., sideways trend. METH, wave 3 bounce off the 50 sma.
NENG, watch list for 200 breakout.
Less than $5.00 MZ, moving off the 50 sma. ATRM trying to break free of the 50 sma.
* Indicates a stock on a prior "Hot Stock" list.
Bear set-ups: BOW, Double Doji top, 50 sma support. Bullish Patterns: CLC, 50 sma breakout.
Bearish Pat
